---
title: "Introduction to R package `ahead`"
output: rmarkdown::html_vignette
vignette: >
  %\VignetteIndexEntry{Introduction to R package `ahead`}
  %\VignetteEngine{knitr::rmarkdown}
  %\VignetteEncoding{UTF-8}
---

`ahead` is a package for __univariate__ and __multivariate time series forecasting__. Five forecasting methods are implemented so far, as of October 13th, 2021.

- `armagarchf`: **univariate** time series forecasting method using simulation of an ARMA(1, 1) - GARCH(1, 1) 
- `dynrmf`: **univariate** time series forecasting method adapted from [`forecast::nnetar`](https://otexts.com/fpp2/nnetar.html#neural-network-autoregression) to support any 
Statistical/Machine learning model (such as Ridge Regression, Random Forest, Support Vector Machines, etc)
- `eatf`: **univariate** time series forecasting method based on combinations of `forecast::ets`, `forecast::auto.arima`, and `forecast::thetaf`
- `ridge2f`: **multivariate** time series forecasting method, based on __quasi-randomized networks__ and presented in [this paper](https://www.mdpi.com/2227-9091/6/1/22)
- `varf`: **multivariate** time series forecasting method using Vector AutoRegressive model (VAR, mostly here for benchmarking purpose)



```{r, include = FALSE}
knitr::opts_chunk$set(
  collapse = TRUE,
  comment = "#>"
)
```

Here's how to install the package:

- __1st method__: from [R-universe](https://ropensci.org/r-universe/)

    In R console:
    
    ```R
    options(repos = c(
        techtonique = 'https://techtonique.r-universe.dev',
        CRAN = 'https://cloud.r-project.org'))
        
    install.packages("ahead")
    ```

- __2nd method__: from Github

    In R console:
    
    ```R
    devtools::install_github("Techtonique/ahead")
    ```
    
    Or
    
    ```R
    remotes::install_github("Techtonique/ahead")
    ```

And here are the packages that will be used in this vignette: 

```{r include=FALSE}
library(ahead)
library(fpp)
library(datasets)
library(randomForest)
library(e1071)
```

```R
library(ahead)
library(fpp)
library(datasets)
library(randomForest)
library(e1071)
```

# Univariate time series

In this section, we illustrate `dynrmf` forecasting, with Random Forest and SVM. Do not hesitate to type `?dynrmf`, 
`?armagarchf` or `?eatf` in R console for more details and examples. 

```{r fig.width=6.5}

# Plotting forecasts
# With a Random Forest regressor, an horizon of 20, 
# and a 95% prediction interval
plot(dynrmf(fdeaths, h=20, level=95, fit_func = randomForest::randomForest,
      fit_params = list(ntree = 50), predict_func = predict))

# With a Support Vector Machine regressor, an horizon of 20, 
# and a 95% prediction interval
plot(dynrmf(fdeaths, h=20, level=95, fit_func = e1071::svm,
fit_params = list(kernel = "linear"), predict_func = predict))

plot(dynrmf(Nile, h=20, level=95, fit_func = randomForest::randomForest,
      fit_params = list(ntree = 50), predict_func = predict))

plot(dynrmf(Nile, h=20, level=95, fit_func = e1071::svm,
fit_params = list(kernel = "linear"), predict_func = predict))

```


For more advanced examples on `dynrmf`, you can read this  [blog post](https://thierrymoudiki.github.io/blog/2021/12/20/r/forecasting/ahead-more-examples).

# Multivariate time series 

In this section, we illustrate `ridge2f` and `varf` forecasting. Do not hesitate 
to type `?ridge2f` or `?varf` in R console for more details on both functions. 


```{r fig.width=6.5}
# Forecast using ridge2
# With 2 time series lags, an horizon of 10, 
# and a 95% prediction interval
 fit_obj_ridge2 <- ahead::ridge2f(fpp::insurance, lags = 2,
                                  h = 10, level = 95)


# Forecast using VAR
 fit_obj_VAR <- ahead::varf(fpp::insurance, lags = 2,
                            h = 10, level = 95)

 
# Plotting forecasts 
# fpp::insurance contains 2 time series, Quotes and TV.advert 
 plot(fit_obj_ridge2, "Quotes")
 plot(fit_obj_VAR, "Quotes")
 plot(fit_obj_ridge2, "TV.advert")
 plot(fit_obj_VAR, "TV.advert")
```